Investor Sentiment
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) surveys its members weekly on their 6-month market outlook. This survey has been running since 1987 and is widely followed as a contrarian indicator of retail investor sentiment.
Bullish37.4%
Neutral27.8%
Bearish34.8%
Understanding the Survey
What Each Response Means
- Bullish: Expecting stocks to rise over the next 6 months
- Neutral: Expecting stocks to stay relatively flat
- Bearish: Expecting stocks to decline over the next 6 months
Historical Averages
- Bullish: 37.5% (long-term average)
- Neutral: 31.5% (long-term average)
- Bearish: 31.0% (long-term average)
How to Use This Data
The AAII Sentiment Survey is primarily used as a contrarian indicator. This means extreme readings often signal the opposite of what the crowd expects.
Extreme Bullishness (above 50%)
- Suggests widespread optimism and potential complacency
- Historically associated with market tops or near-term pullbacks
- The crowd is often wrong at extremes
- Consider being more cautious with new positions
Extreme Bearishness (above 50%)
- Indicates widespread fear and pessimism
- Historically associated with market bottoms or buying opportunities
- "Be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett
- Often a good time to look for value
Important Caveats
- Sentiment is a secondary indicator - don't use it in isolation
- Extreme readings can persist longer than expected
- The survey reflects retail investor sentiment, not institutional
- Best used in combination with technical and fundamental analysis
- The survey is released every Thursday morning
For detailed charts and technical analysis, we recommend TradingView.