Supply Chain
Refinery Utilization
U.S. refinery operable capacity utilization from the EIA. Measures what percentage of total refining capacity is actively processing crude oil into fuels. Drops below 85% signal supply constraints that can push gasoline and diesel prices higher.
Mississippi River Levels
Gage height at Baton Rouge, Louisiana — the heart of the Mississippi River grain export corridor. Low water levels (<10 ft) restrict barge drafts, reducing loads by up to 25% and spiking freight costs. Flood stage (>40 ft) halts river traffic entirely. The 2022 low-water event caused weeks of barge delays and pushed grain export costs up sharply.
Rail Carloads
Total U.S. freight rail carloads, a leading indicator of industrial production and goods movement. Rail carries 40% of U.S. freight by ton-mile, including coal, grain, chemicals, and autos. Declining carloads often precede broader economic slowdowns, while sustained growth signals healthy industrial demand.
Border Wait Times
Real-time commercial and passenger vehicle wait times at major border crossings. Status badges reflect commercial vehicle delays — the key indicator for trade flow disruption.
Border wait time data unavailable.
Why Supply Chain Indicators Matter
Market Connections
- Refinery utilization directly impacts gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices
- River levels affect grain export costs, which feed into food inflation
- Rail carloads are a leading economic indicator — declining loads precede slowdowns
- Border delays disrupt just-in-time manufacturing and raise import costs
Key Thresholds
- Refinery <85%: Supply constraints — fuel prices typically rise
- River <10 ft: Barge loads restricted — export delays and higher freight costs
- Rail YoY <-2%: Freight recession signal — industrial weakness
- Border >60 min: Severe delays — manufacturing supply chain disruption
Data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, USGS National Water Information System, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), U.S. Customs and Border Protection.